15 years ago, the CIA predictions about the world today?



In 2000, just before George W. Bush took office the US President, the CIA issued a 70-page report predicted the world situation in 2015.



Already over half of 2015 and we look back at the most striking prediction of the CIA to verify their accuracy.

1. "International relations are increasingly determined by large institutions and power, not the government"

Looking at the expansion of the Islamic state organizations we see here is an accurate prediction. On the other hand, more and more organizations surpassed the government as Chinese hacker group stole information of millions of US government employees and suspected cases Sony Korea attacked last year.

2. "From now until 2015, terrorists will have more sophisticated tactics to inflict mass casualties"


Leave a correctly predicted otherwise. Sadly, this prediction come true so fast. On 11/9/2001, the whole world was shocked at the terrorist attacks in building World Trade Center in New York, the US left nearly 3,000 people dead.

3. "Iraq and Iran will develop long-range missiles in the near future. Iran may be testing weapons in the coming year and cruise missile testing in 2004"


Both of these estimates are accurate. Iran developing intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and is expected to test it in 2015. However, the international community has punished Iran and force it to sit at the negotiating table. Diplomats said they are close to a reasonable agreement.

4. "The world population will increase by more than 1 billion, at 7.2 billion people"

Accurate, current world population of 7.3 billion people around.

5. "supply enough energy to meet the needs"

This is also accurately predicted. Productivity of US oil production has soared in recent years and the United States was ready to become exporter of liquefied natural gas primarily in the following years.

6. "China's economy will overtake the European Union to become the world's second economy after the US"

This prediction is only partly true. According to some calculations, the Chinese economy is currently larger than the US, but some other calculations suggested that China's not overtake the European Union.

7. "European economy will not be comparable to the US economic balance between regions"

This prediction is not accurate, since recent European economic growth.

8. "Aids, famine and political instability and economic causes of population decline in African countries".

This is not exactly predictable, although Africa has experienced much turmoil in the past 15 years. Africa's population grew from 800 million in 2000 to 1.1 billion in 2014.
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